Umnotho wezinhlelo zokusebenza, ngaphansi kwendawo

Lokho okuhlanganiswa yile vidiyo

• 2008: izinhlelo zokusebenza ezingu-500, ukulanda okungu-10M ngempelasonto, i-Trism ne-iShoot zenze ingcebo enkulu
• 2012–2014: abathuthukisi abangu-25 bathatha uhhafu wemali engenayo; "umugqa wobumpofu wezinhlelo zokusebenza"; u-0.01% we-Gartner
• 2026: kwethulwa i-7×, i-Cursor $2B, i-Lovable $500M — futhi izinhlelo zokusebenza ezintsha zihlukanisa u-3% wemali

Umbhalo obhaliwe ohunyushwe

Kuhunyushwe kusuka ekulandiseni kokuqala kwesiNgisi. Umsindo namazwibela atholakalayo alawulwa yi-YouTube.

0:00 Ukuthumela uhlelo lokusebenza kwakuyinto enzima kakhulu futhi ukukhokhelwa kwakuyinto elula; ku 2026 zashintshana izindawo, futhi akekho owatshela izinkulungwane eziyishumi nane zabantu abake bethula olulodwa ngenyanga edlule. Izinombolo ezintathu. Ukwethulwa kwezinhlelo zokusebenza zokubhalisa: izinkulungwane ezimbili ngenyanga ngoJanuwari 2022, izinkulungwane eziyishumi nane namakhulu ayisikhombisa ngoJanuwari 2026, izikhathi eziyisikhombisa ngaphezulu. Ukulandwa komhlaba wonke kwehle okwesihlanu unyaka olandelanayo ngenkathi ukusetshenziswa kwemali kukhuphuka ngamaphesenti angamashumi amabili nanye amaphesenti. Futhi amasenti angamashumi ayisithupha nesishiyagalolunye kuwo wonke idola lokubhalisa aya ezinhlelweni zokusebenza ezethulwe

0:26 ngaphambi kuka-2020; konke okwethulwe kusukela ngo-2025 kuhlukanisa okuthathu. Ngemizuzu emithathu: lokhu kuvelaphi, ukuthi umshini usebenza kanjani, nokuthi kusho ukuthini ngoMsombuluko. Lokhu yiThe Daily Diff, ngaphansi kwendawo. Julayi 2008. I-Apple ivula i-App Store ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezingamakhulu amahlanu nabasebenzisi balanda izigidi eziyishumi ngempelasonto yokuqala; i-iPhone 3G ithengisa isigidi esisodwa ngaphandle izinsuku ezintathu, okwathatha okwangempela okungamashumi ayisikhombisa nane, noSteve Ballmer, owayehleke ifoni kuthelevishini, uyaqhubeka ehleka,

0:55 kodwa buthule. Umdlalo wephazili kaSteve Demeter wamadola amahlanu i-Trism uthola ingxenye yekota wesigidi ezinyangeni ezimbili, i-iShoot ka-Ethan Nicholas yenza amakhulu ayisithupha ezinkulungwane ngaphandle olulodwa, ne-I Am Rich, uhlelo lokusebenza lwedola eliyinkulungwane olubonisa igugu elibomvu, lithengisa amakhophi ayisishiyagalombili ngaphambi kokuthi i-Apple ilikhiphe, okuseyisilinganiso sokuguqulwa esingcono kuneningi lama-paywall. Bese isitolo sigcwala. Novemba 2012: I-Canalys ibala abathuthukisi abangamashumi amabili nanhlanu, abangamashumi amabili nane kubo izitudiyo zemidlalo, bethatha uhhafu wemali engenayo yezinhlelo zokusebenza zase-US.

1:21 2014: I-VisionMobile ibeka uhhafu wabathuthukisi be-iOS ngaphansi komugqa wobumpofu wezinhlelo zokusebenza, amadola angamakhulu amahlanu ngenyanga ngohlelo lokusebenza, futhi i-Gartner ibikezela ukuthi ngaphansi kuka-0.01 amaphesenti ezinhlelo zokusebenza zabathengi ayoke abe yimpumelelo yezezimali. Amadola angamashumi amahlanu ezinkulungwane ngosuku e-Flappy Bird ngalobo busika ikakhulu aphazamisa abanye amaphesenti angama-99.99. Khona-ke ngo-2025 umgoqo awuzange wehle, washabalala. I-Vercel ithi amaphesenti angamashumi ayisithupha nantathu waba-vibe-coders abathuthukisi, futhi ijika lokwethulwa kwe-RevenueCat likhuphuka kakhulu lapho ama-ejenti eselunge kahle: wonke umuntu uyakha, akekho omusha olalayo.

1:52 Nansi imishini. Yonke uhlelo lokusebenza lwakhiwa, lusatshalaliswe, lwethenjiwe, futhi luyakhokhelwa. Ngo-2008 ukwakha kwakuyinkinga futhi ukusabalalisa kwakumahhala, ngoba ithangi lezinhlanzi elibonakalayo kwakuyizindaba. Ngo-2014 inkinga kwakuyikusabalalisa, futhi abangamashumi amabili nanhlanu abaphezulu bakuthenga nge izabelomali zokukhangisa. Ngo-2026 ukwakha kumahhala, ukusabalalisa yindali, futhi inkinga yithemba: umuntu ongaziwa kufanele akunike idatha yakhe neyakhe ikhadi, futhi iminyaka yokubuyekezwa iyinto eyodwa ongeke ukwazi ukuyiletha ngokushesha.

2:17 Ngakho-ke izinhlelo zokusebenza zangaphambi kuka-2020 zigcina amaphesenti angamashumi ayisithupha nesishiyagalolunye, futhi uhlelo lokusebenza olusha oluphakathi nendawo lwenza amadola angamashumi ayisikhombisa nambili ngenyanga ngonyaka owodwa, ngaphansi kwesihlalo se-Cursor esakha sona. Abathengisi befosholo balungile: I-Cursor idlule izigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili emalini engenayo yonyaka ngoFebhuwari, i-Lovable izigidi ezingamakhulu amahlanu ngoJuni, cishe konke okukhishwa yi-cohort yonke ka-2025 ngonyaka. Omunye umthuthukisi we-indie wafingqa umbiko ngamagama ayisishiyagalolunye: ikhodi ayiselona ugwayi, kusabalalisa kunjalo. Zombili izingxenye ziqinisile, okuyinkinga. Ngakho, uMsombuluko. Okokuqala: uhlelo lokusabalalisa ngaphambi kwekhodi; abasebenzisi abayinkulungwane bokuqala ba

2:50 isinqumo sokuklama. Okwesibili: ukwakha obala kuyisiteshi esisodwa, hhayi isu; u-Yoni Smolyar wayevlogga nsuku zonke izinsuku ezingamakhulu amane namashumi amahlanu ngaphambi kokuthi i-Brainrot yenze izinkulungwane ezingamashumi amabili nesithupha ngenyanga yokuqala, futhi u-Pieter Levels wethula izinkampani eziyi-12 ngo-2014 ukuze athole uhlu olulodwa lwe-Nomad Uhlu. Okwesithathu: intengo yethemba, hhayi izici; i-paywall akuyona inkinga yakho, umuntu ongaziwa nguye. Isahlulelo, ngaphansi kwendawo: NEEDS REVIEW. Ukwakha kuyathunyelwa, ukuthengisa kuyarevert, futhi imakethe ayikanqumi ukuthi yikhokhela yiphi

3:15 ngayo. Ngitshele ukuthi yini okufanele ngiyivule ngeSonto elilandelayo kumazwana. Futhi lokho kuyi-diff yanamuhla. Ngingu-Niko wase-Axrisi. Hlanganisa ngokuzibophezela.

Imithombo

1. RevenueCat, State of Subscription Apps 2026 (launches 7×, 69% / 3% by cohort, $72 median)www.revenuecat.com
2. Appfigures via TechCrunch: downloads down a 5th year, spend +21.6% to $155.8Btechcrunch.com
3. Ballmer laughs at the iPhone (2007)venturebeat.com
4. Wired on Trism ($250K in 2 months) — https://www.wired.com/2008/09/indie-developer/ · iShoot ($600K in a month)www.wired.com
5. I Am Richen.wikipedia.org
6. Canalys 2012: 25 developers = 50% of US app revenuetechcrunch.com
7. VisionMobile 2014 "app poverty line"techcrunch.com
8. Gartner, Jan 2014: under 0.01% of consumer apps a financial successweb.archive.org
9. Flappy Bird $50K/day (The Verge)www.theverge.com
10. Vercel, State of Vibe Coding (63% non-developers)vercel.com
11. Lovable $500M annualized (TechCrunch)techcrunch.com
12. Pieter Levels, 12 startups in 12 monthslevels.io
13. Yoni Smolyar / Brainrot (Indie Hackers)www.indiehackers.com